01 12 1999 14:18:22
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Analysis of competing hypotheses
«Chapter 8 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ACH, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions.
It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve. ACH is an eight-step procedure grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method.
It is a surprisingly effective, proven process that helps analysts avoid common analytic pitfalls. Because of its thoroughness, it is particularly appropriate for controversial issues when analysts want to leave an audit trail to show what they considered and how they arrived at their judgment.84»...
Source: http://www.au.af.mil | Source Status
Categories: Intelligence Economique,Bibliographie
